Friedman predicts China Won’t Dominate the 21st Century

| April 29th, 2009

From Yahoo Finance:
Here is an interesting interview by Aaron Task with George Friedman, founder of STARTFOR and author of “The Next 100 Years”.  He predicts China will not dominate the 21st Century,

instead it is more likely being overpowered by other countries like Japan.

The main issue he talked about is “China is split in the middle”. He is referring to the gap between the inner-land China where people live in poverty and the modern Eastern seaboard.  He said “Eastern seaboard of China is booming as part of western economic system, it is not part of China. Beijing is trying to balance – in a very ancient way – between one region that’s lost its bearings in China vs. the rest of China that’s bitterly poor and extremely angry”

He believes while many invest in China, the “insiders” are actually leaving. He said “I see very difficult to imagine how a  coastal region that has more in common with Los Angeles and Minneapolis is going to be held together with 1.1 billion economy is barely above starvation level”.

“China has had extraordinary growth for 30 years – the probability it will do it for 60 years is statistical negligible," he says.

2 Comments | Leave a comment | Comment feed

  1. BIGLoser says:

    This guy is clueless. Another China know-it-all that has probably never even stepped foot on Chinese soil.

  2. frankb00th says:

    If you read you own chinese history books,
    you may rememember that very large numbers of poor and hungry people and few extremely rich ones,rarely co exist for a long time.
    Sometimes it can end well but most of the time it turns very bad and very bloody

    It happens everywhere
    The guy is just suggesting that this is what may happen
    Also, pollution like what I’ve seen when i visited cannot go on for another sixty years
    There will be nothing left.

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